A lot of pecans are grown in Georgia. In just about every year, in fact, Georgia growers produce more pecans than do growers in any other state (Texas and New Mexico are also big producers). [GA production is highest in Dougherty, Mitchell, and Lee counties in the southwest part of the state.]
    Pecans are also a good example of price changes due to supply shifts -- variations in weather conditions result in wide swings in yearly output. The figures below show that the actual market price generally adjusts just as supply-and-demand analysis predicts (note the pattern in years 1997-2002 and from 2003-2007): a large decrease in supply tends to drive the market price up; an increase in supply tends to drive it down.

    [It is, of course, very unlikely that the demand for pecans has stayed constant over this 13-year period. It does seem likely, however, that year-to-yesr changes in supply dramatically exceeded changes in demand, which implies that the price movements shown above largely result from supply shifts. Also, price movements over time should be corrected for inflation; the prices shown above have not been corrected.]

    The "real-world" pecan market is more complicated than is the simplest supply-and-demand model, in part because (i) imports play a role, and (ii) pecans can be put into and removed from storage. Both of these factors will generally tend to reduce price fluctuations. For example, after a large harvest, some of the pecan crop can be put into storage rather than being sold, and those nuts can then be taken out of storage after a small harvest.
    Changes in inventories probably explain the price changes from 1995-97 -- much of the 1995 crop possibly went into storage, which then held down the 1996 price. [Low inventories after 1998 may also explain why the huge 1999 crop didn't push prices even lower, and why the rise in output from 2002 to 2003 didn't reduce the market price.]
    Here's a graph (scroll down to Figure 1) that illustrates the above figures (through 2001), along with data for "imports" and "stocks" (inventories), and here's a Athens Banner-Herald newspaper story (from November, 2002) about the pecan market. Note: if you want to read the story (which is entirely optional), you'll have to register with OnlineAthens. [If interested, also see: "Pecan growers facing lean year", by Peralte C. Paul, Atlanta Journal-Constitution, August 30, 2002.]

Data on production and (average) price come from the National Agricultural Statistics Service.